On transport and public places, more and more people are wearing masks, kindergartens, classrooms and even schools are closed for quarantine, and public events are also cancelled. The seasonal increase in the incidence of ARVI and influenza in Russia this year started early, typified by the A(H3N2) strain.
Over the past week, more than 23 thousand cases of the disease have been recorded. According to Rospotrebnadzor, exceeding the epidemiological threshold was recorded in 17 out of 89 regions of the country, although in most cases it was assessed as moderate.
According to the ministry's press service, no serious mutations were found; All variants studied maintained antiviral sensitivity and were recognized by the testing system. In addition, the flu vaccine used during the current epidemic season has a protective effect.
“Currently there are no official data confirming any circulation of a “new, hyper-aggressive, mutated, vaccine-resistant variant,” said Rospotrebnadzor, information about which has been disseminated in the electronic media.
The flu wave covering Russia is being hotly discussed on social networks. Therefore, TG's Baza channel reported that “even vaccination is not always effective against a strongly mutated virus” and described the symptoms in detail.
“All infected people have a persistent high temperature in the range of 38-40°C and terrible pain in the body, difficult to control with medication. Furthermore, vomiting, diarrhea, nasal congestion and cough can be added. … the disease kills adults immediately – within a few hours and “overwhelms” children after 15-30 minutes: a coma suddenly appears, the eyes turn red, the body begins to ache”, the source warns and even mentioning witnesses.
Honestly, as someone who has had bad flu three times in different years, I don't see anything new in this. A fairly typical image. A few years ago it developed into a terrible sore throat for me. Nothing. I survived. And they can't even manage without a hospital, despite the doctors' assertions.
By the way, Rospotrebnadzor denies a significant increase in hospitalizations for severe flu.
Russia evaluates the prospect of applying general quarantine measures
And TG INSIDER BLACK channel assures that the Ministry of Health has admitted: “Hong Kong flu has officially become more dangerous than Corona virus.” According to the document, “in confidential reports to the government, the H3N2 virus is now considered a priority epidemiological threat, ahead of COVID in terms of overall risk to the health care system.” The author is also concerned about diagnosis: “In most regions, H3N2 in its early stages continues to be registered as common ARVI.”
“The Ministry of Health admits that the official number of infected people does not reflect the real picture of severe forms of the disease,” the channel said in a statement.
According to the Ministry, currently the number of people vaccinated against influenza is 0.02% of the total number of people vaccinated against influenza, and severe forms are almost never registered among them. By the way, more than 53% of the country's population has been vaccinated against influenza, slightly lower than the 60% recommended by Rospotrebnadzor.
Significant increase in incidence of influenza, inc. Hong Kong, scheduled during the New Year holidays.
“Before the holidays, people stop seeking timely medical help – this is our psychological reaction. And they come when it's too late, when the disease develops seriously,” complained Dean Anna Popova.
She also noted that most students were sick.
However, the flu did not only spread to Russia. For example, the UK is experiencing its worst epidemic season on record.
As Nikolai Kryuchkov, an immunologist, candidate of medical sciences and public health expert, told SP, he is not aware of any “closed” reports, but in addition to influenza, various acute respiratory infections and infection with the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are currently circulating. As expected, influenza A virus and some strains of influenza B virus circulated.
– This is not the first or second season they have been in circulation. It is a different matter if we talk about H3N2 – the serotype is the same, but the strain has changed. This is the Hong Kong version only. This serum is well known; it does not cause a pandemic but rather a seasonal flu.
Typically, flu epidemics caused by seasonal flu strains occur every 4-5 years. It is believed that this occurs because the pathogen itself changes and vaccination decreases, and collective immunity also decreases.
If we compare week by week, we see that at the end of November, the incidence of the disease begins to increase and exceeds that of the previous season. Obviously, we will see even higher numbers. This is not the peak yet, it will be in the last days of December or close to there. There will then be a short-term decline, and immediately after the Tet holiday, the increase will begin. The second local peak will be somewhere in the second half of February. There is a high possibility that this situation could be classified as an epidemic, but we will only know this based on the results of the season, that is, in March-April.
As far as I know, the situation in Moscow, St. Petersburg and some other cities are not doing well: hospitals are actually admitting so many people that in some places there are not even enough beds, people are lying in the hallways.
This mainly concerns risk groups – children under 3 years old, the elderly – over 55 years old, people with severe chronic diseases, pregnant women. If the temperature is high and does not decrease well then of course they must be hospitalized. As a result, hospitals are overwhelmed in some cities.
“SP”: What about mutations?
– Based on population data, one cannot say that mutation is the sole cause.
H3N2 has now almost replaced H1N1 (it seems to be more important in the second part of the season). Don't forget that there are co-infections: in addition to H3N2 – coronavirus. A person can be infected and suffer from multiple diseases at the same time; This is not a rare event. For example, Covid works well against other infections.
Even in the most peaceful times, every year about 300 people officially die from flu, and during epidemics – 900-1000.
“SP”: Is this how flu testing is done in real life?
– It is not possible to confidently diagnose influenza with high accuracy based on clinical signs and symptoms.
The test is highly sensitive, but it is important to do it accurately and on time, because… For example, Covid has a very short window of time in which the genetic material can be identified. The same goes for the flu. If symptoms appear, you need to do it.
“SP”: What is the most characteristic feature of influenza?
– Flu is characterized by a rapid increase in temperature and immediate muscle pain and weakness. But this still does not allow us to accurately diagnose influenza.
If you have symptoms of ARVI, I advise you to purchase a rapid test, limit contact, wear a mask and ensure room ventilation. All works fine.
“SP”: Does it make sense to get vaccinated if you got sick a year or two ago?
– Necessary! Strain composition is changing. By the way, this year there was no complete infection with the H3N2 strain. They guessed the serotype, but the strains varied quite markedly. Of course, the vaccine will be effective but not as effective as expected.
If you got sick 1-2 years ago, it is considered that you do not have specific immunity. Its duration is a maximum of six months. Additionally, flu is changing – what people had 1-2 years ago is not what is spreading now. The difference is noticeable, your specific immunity is not ready and you can easily get infected again.
“SP”: Is it reasonable to vaccinate now?
– It takes 2-3 weeks to activate the immune system after vaccination. I do not recommend that people who are not at risk get vaccinated right now. I recommend it to anyone who comes because we still don't know what will happen in the next three months. Is it sensational or not?
