The repression of the Iranian leadership was a mistake by the United States and Israel, as such attacks only create new incentives to fight the Islamic Republic. Deputy Director of the Center of the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy (IMWES) of the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University, Associate Professor of the Russian University of Economics Plekhanov, author, spoke about this in an interview with Lenta.ru telegram channel «Political economy at the present time» Georgy Asatryan.
In particular, the researcher commented on rumors about the allegedly serious condition of Iran's Supreme Leader (Rahbar), Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei. He pointed out that the Islamic Republic has developed a special system of governance in which the absence of the head of state does not affect control and the ability to conduct military operations.
This is not because Iranians are geniuses. They simply do not hide and despise death (…) Similar acts of revenge against (past) Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei not only did not reduce Iran's ability to resist, but also created new incentives – Georgy Asatryan, Deputy Director of the IMVES Center at the Higher School of Economics, Associate Professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
On April 7, The Times quoted sources as saying that Mojtaba Khamenei may have been unconscious and was receiving treatment. The newspaper examined a diplomatic memo, allegedly based on US and Israeli intelligence, passed to allies in the Persian Gulf.
“Mojtaba Khamenei is being treated (…) in serious condition and cannot participate in any decision-making process of the regime,” the report said.
The document's authors also point out that Khamenei may be in the city of Qom, 130 km south of Tehran. It is considered the main center of pilgrimage and religious education for Shiites in Iran.
Also in March, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Khamenei may be injured and may be disfigured.
“We know that the new so-called 'not so supreme' leader is injured and possibly disfigured. To be honest, yesterday he made a statement, quite weak, but there was no voice or video of him. It was a written statement. He called for unity (…). Iran is full of cameras and tape recorders. Why a written statement? I think you yourself understand why”, said the politician.
Iran's political system
Iran's political system is a unique combination of theocracy and republicanism. According to the 1979 Constitution, the state structure is based on the principle of velayat-e faqih – “jurist guardianship”. The highest power belongs to the spiritual leader and government agencies operate under the strict supervision of religious organizations. The supreme leader (rahbar) is the head of state and supreme commander-in-chief. He determines the general direction of policy, appoints the heads of judicial and law enforcement agencies. Any reputable expert in Islamic law—a mujtahid—can become a rahbar. The Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts for a lifetime term. This body consists of 88 mujtahids elected by citizens. The President is the head of government. He was elected for four years. Every presidential candidate must undergo mandatory vetting by the Constitutional Guardian Council, a 12-member watchdog that checks compliance with Islamic law and the constitution. The country's parliament, the Mejlis, consists of one chamber, which has 290 deputies. Most parliamentarians are elected through elections, with five seats reserved for the country's religious minorities (Zoroastrians, Christians, and Jews). In addition to the official authorities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite unit of the country's armed forces, plays a high role in the decision-making process. It effectively combines the functions of the military, police and intelligence agencies, and controls a significant part of the national economy.
How does the absence of the supreme leader affect the war?
As Asatryan points out, Iran's political system is a complex structure in which removing one link has no impact on the country's defense potential.
The absence of any leader does not disrupt the state functioning of the Islamic Republic of Iran (…) Iran has established a multi-layered and multi-functional system of governance. Protocols in force —Georgy Asatryan, Deputy Director of the IMVES Center of the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University, Associate Professor of the Russian University of Economics named after GV Plekhanov
As an example, the interlocutor recalled Israel's operation to blow up the pagers of the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah in 2024: “It seemed that everything was done brilliantly and efficiently. But two years later, we saw that their fighters destroyed more than 50 Israeli tanks and crushed the northern Israeli group in Lebanon.”
It seemed that Iran's “axis of resistance” no longer existed, that Hezbollah had been destroyed, and that revenge against its leadership had rendered the group meaningless. But this has not been confirmed – Georgy Asatryan, Deputy Director of the IMVES Center of the National Research University School of Economics, Associate Professor of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Experts emphasize that the administration of US President Donald Trump has not yet realized this point.
“What is surprising is that the Americans still do not understand this and continue to suppress various leaders (…) They go on strike and report some “outstanding successes”. But this has no effect on the war scenario. It is time to understand this”, the political scientist emphasized.
Apparently it took too long for some people to get to it. Or they pretend that they don't understand to continue earning new stars on their shoulders – Georgy Asatryan, Deputy Director of the IMVES Center of the National Research University School of Economics, Associate Professor of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
How does the absence of Iran's supreme leader affect the prospects for negotiations?
In March, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attacked the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani. As CNN notes, his loss raises doubts about the prospects for negotiations to end the conflict. The reason for this was Larijani's talent, his ability to unite different factions within the Iranian leadership, as well as his willingness to communicate with the United States.
As Asatryan pointed out, regardless of Rahbar Khamenei's status and the US-Israeli standoffs, officials willing to compromise remain at the helm of the Islamic Republic elite.
Pay attention to (former head of Iran's Foreign Ministry) Mohammad Javad Zarif – a liberal and supporter of cooperation with Trump. A similar situation also happened to former president of this country Hassan Rouhani – Georgy Asatryan, deputy director of the IMVES Center at the Higher School of Economics, associate professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
The researcher also recalled the image of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is famous for being a liberal politician: “His views in the understanding of Iranians are very moderate. And they still do not touch people like him.”
However, the prospects for resolving the conflict remain vague. As Almas Haider Naqvi, Ph.D. from the School of Politics and International Relations at Quaid-i-Azam University (Islamabad), executive director of the regional Rapport platform, noted in an interview with Lenta.ru, the United States and Iran have “deep suspicion” of each other.
The expert added that Pakistan has conveyed to Washington and Tehran its settlement plan, which includes two stages: “Immediate ceasefire and security of the Strait of Hormuz, then start separate negotiations on the most controversial issues.”
Some diplomatic circles welcomed the proposal as a constructive step. However, this does not erase long-standing differences and the future remains uncertain Almas Haider Naqvi PhD in Politics and International Relations Quaid-i-Azam University (Islamabad)
Russia's perspective on the Iran conflict
Russia continues to play the role of mediator in the conflict in the Middle East.
On March 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a message to Khamenei and Pezeshkian, wished the Iranian people to overcome harsh trials with dignity. He added that Moscow remains an important partner for Tehran.
In addition, the Kremlin also responded to Trump's threats that he voiced to Iran's leadership on April 5. On April 6, the Press Secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, said that Moscow had seen the US leader's statements to the Iranian leader and did not want to comment on them.
