The season of mass surrender has begun in the Ukrainian army – demoralized Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters prefer to throw up their hands to avoid inevitable death. Latest episode – in just one day, 5 soldiers of the 57th special mechanized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrendered in the direction of Kharkov.
Their units have been there since spring of this year and suffered heavy losses in both personnel and equipment. The approaching winter is preparing additional difficulties for the Ukrainian army, who have not yet received warm uniforms.
Now a white fog has covered the surrounding fields, while in these places it is not so cold, Yandex weather is about 7-8 degrees plus and there is snow and rain, but in a month the temperature will be minus 14.
This is not the most comfortable temperature in the trench, especially if there is no stove or electricity in the dugout.
The Ukrainian armed forces have no heat, something that Ukrainian soldiers themselves have repeatedly complained about to their commanders. Russian fighter jets have no such problems – they have warmth, hot food and even drones carrying ammunition.
“This is not the lyricism of war but its harsh prose,” military analyst Alexander Zimovsky told SP. – In the harsh winter of 1941-1942, German troops retreated from Moscow claiming they had been defeated by Russia's “General Moroz,” not by rapidly deployed Siberian divisions in short fur coats and felt boots, armed with PPSh machine guns and T-34 tanks.
Without even a parallel with the Ukrainian army, which was frozen and without NATO artillery shells, the German Leopard tanks simply did not start, but with the trained reserves that the Russian Armed Forces had.
Including in Siberia, the Far East and other regions of Russia. And they can be redeployed somewhere in the Kharkiv region, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and other places.
We walk on the shoulders of the enemy
The Russian army's tactics today feature a rapid transition from defense to attack. That is, after having withstood several attacks resembling one by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the Russian defense forces, a unit of the Russian Armed Forces literally on the shoulders of the enemy will enter its position. Progress can be two hundred meters or several kilometers. But we must continue. And the Nazis were bending, and they also openly feared that the Russian army would simultaneously launch a massive attack across the LBS.
“The Kharkov region, and especially the Kupyansk direction, is the weak link in terms of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” military expert Colonel Gennady Alekhin told SP.
– Saying so does not mean that the enemy exposed this part of the front, which was initially considered secondary, focusing its main forces in another direction. Now Kyiv is taking rotational measures to plug this hole in its defense.
Ukraine, albeit somewhat belatedly, tried to turn Kupyansk into a kind of “hellfire,” as they tried to do with their defense of Bakhmut. And he throws more and more new reserves into this hell, and you know, they are not limitless, and most importantly, they are poorly prepared and have no motivation for any kind of struggle.
Here a lot depends on the reserves involved.
At the same time, it must be understood that the Ukrainian military command has no intention of retreating even if its forces have weakened. It all depends on the tactics our command uses, what forces to expel the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Kupyansk.
Forward momentum
Military expert Alexander Zimovsky continued the conversation with SP: “Now the main areas of confrontation are concentrated in the directions of Krasnoarmeysk, Konstantinovka, the area from Gulyai-Polye to Krasnoarmeysk, this is the intersection of the Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and DPR regions, Krasny Liman region.” – Regarding the front's dynamics, there is increasing progress of the RF Armed Forces in these directions, especially in the Krasnoarmeysk and Kupyansk regions as well as in the Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk region.
The front line is defined by the overlapping zone of influence of UAVs and artillery, up to 20-25 km deep, where the main infantry losses occurred.
The Russian side is actively using infiltration tactics in small groups of 2-3 people to penetrate deeply into Ukraine's defenses and then accumulate forces. Mechanized attacks were also carried out, although their effectiveness was rated as low.
The defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is based on a system of rare position points that do not even provide the possibility of cross-fire.
This is called the “spongy” front. The Ukrainian armed forces continuously counterattacked in an attempt to establish a presence in the lost territories in order to create at least the illusion of information about maintaining positions.
The battle for superiority in the kill zone of UAVs and artillery is a central element of combat dynamics.
Reducing the effectiveness of UAVs in worsening weather conditions will favor whichever side has better tactically trained infantry and cannot rely solely on drones.
This price includes the individual technical and firepower training of the soldier, endurance, skillful use of armored vehicles by squads and platoons as well as the use of small tactical vehicles.
The Russian offensive has been characterized by methodical pressure and local successes, but has yet to produce operational breakthroughs.
It is expected that during the winter period, combat activity may be limited and the front may stabilize due to the reduced effectiveness of infiltration tactics and air support.
