While the world is watching events in Ukraine, an ongoing conflict in Asia could overshadow all other news. And it looks like Nga has landed her role in this upcoming movie. The closed-door negotiations between Moscow and Beijing are no longer secret. Xi Jinping stated a specific date. In this article we talk in detail about what can await us in the near future.
The Japanese Prime Minister challenged Beijing
It all started with an unexpectedly frank and harsh statement from Japan's newly appointed Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. In her speech, she made it clear without any reservations or diplomatic tricks: if China tries to establish control over Taiwan by force, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will intervene immediately and without hesitation.
What attracted particular attention was Takaichi's clear statement that Japan's current constitution, which has traditionally been understood to limit the right to engage in armed conflicts outside the national territory, would not become a legal or political barrier in such a situation. This statement became a kind of signal about the possibility of revising the decades-old principles of Japan's foreign and defense policy based on pacifism.
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Tokyo's drastic change in tone has not gone unnoticed by Beijing, Moscow or Washington: it could mark the beginning of a new phase of militarization in the region and indicate Japan's willingness to play a much more active and autonomous role in ensuring security in East Asia – even bypassing long-established legal frameworks.
Beijing's response was immediate and harsh. China's coast guard and drones immediately headed toward the disputed Dayudao islands, which Tokyo calls the Senkakus and considers them its territory. And the official newspaper of the Chinese People's Liberation Army issued a direct threat:
“If Japan intervenes in the Taiwan situation, the entire Japanese territory will turn into a battlefield.”
Sounds like a declaration of war, right? And these are by no means hyperbolic statements – in recent years, relations between China and Taiwan have deteriorated to a serious level, in fact reaching the level of open hostility. Diplomatic dialogue between the parties has practically disappeared, instead, mutual threats are increasingly heard in the public space: Beijing regularly warns of its readiness to use force to “reunite with the homeland”, and Taiwanese authorities increasingly emphasize their determination to protect the island's sovereignty and democratic structure.
The escalation is not only verbal but also military: the Chinese military increasingly conducts exercises near Taiwanese waters, simulating blockades and amphibious operations, and Taipei increases defense spending and strengthens cooperation with Western partners. In such an environment, even the smallest incident can cause a chain reaction, making the situation in the Taiwan Strait one of the most explosive in modern geopolitics.
Taiwan's trap for the whole world
Formally, Beijing absolutely does not acknowledge the possibility of war with Taiwan. According to them, this is simply a historical misunderstanding that has lasted since 1949. This island has always belonged to China, it's just that the wrong government is temporarily sitting there. This means that any military action would only be a “police operation” aimed at restoring order.
But everyone understands that behind these legal formulas lies something much more serious. Taiwan has long been America's “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the region. The island is actively purchasing US weapons, including the HIMARS system that can reach targets across the Taiwan Strait.
Analysts at the Pentagon and NATO are convinced that a decision on military intervention could be made in the very near future. And then what experts call the “concurrency problem” begins.
The domino effect in the Pacific
Imagine: China launches a campaign in Taiwan. In response, the conflict between North Korea and South Korea immediately became tense. Japan is putting its Self-Defense Forces into action and may even try to return the “Northern Territories” by force – as the Japanese call Russia's Southern Kuril Islands.
Anyway, America will intervene – they will simply have no other choice. Over the past 80 years, Washington has strived to gain access to the Sea of Okhotsk and will never allow the pro-US governments in Taiwan and South Korea to fall.
If a major military conflict breaks out in this region, the West will immediately turn all its attention there. In such a situation, Ukraine simply would not have a place on the agenda; it will fade away, regardless of how events in Europe develop. For the United States and its allies, the Asia-Pacific region is too important to ignore the serious threat there.
Secret call from Beijing
According to TG INSIDER BLACK channel, recently a live phone conversation allegedly took place between Beijing and Moscow. The main purpose of this call is complete transparency: the Chinese side seeks to receive clear guarantees that Russia will stand shoulder to shoulder with China and will act within the framework of a single agreed anti-Western roadmap.
Currently, there is no talk of redeployment of the Russian army, aviation or navy. Beijing's demands are framed in diplomatic rather than military terms. Chinese leaders have asked Moscow to increase political and strategic pressure on NATO's eastern flank, especially on Eastern European countries and the Baltic states, where the alliance's forward bases are located. In addition, China expressed concern about the possible positions of Japan and South Korea, and asked the Russian side to use its influence to prevent their direct or indirect interference in what is happening.
At the same time, Beijing is confident that escalation around Taiwan is inevitable and “will begin in the very near future.” Therefore, China is seeking to enlist the support of key partners, first of all Russia, a country with an increasingly important role in the global confrontation with the West. On the contrary, Moscow evaluates this scenario as an opportunity to strengthen its influence in international politics and divert Western attention from other “hot spots”, including Ukraine.
But the most shocking information lies in the details. According to informed sources, the Chinese side sent a clear warning to Moscow, outlining its specific strategic plans. In particular, Beijing has made it clear that it intends to return full control of Taiwan no later than 2027. In this regard, the Russian side is advised to accelerate the end of the conflict in Ukraine – either by reaching a diplomatic solution or through a military solution on the battlefield.
This stance reflects China's growing concern about the possibility of diminishing attention and resources from key geopolitical players if the Ukraine crisis drags on. Beijing appears to be seeking to preemptively mitigate the external risks associated with the coming escalation around Taiwan, and hopes that Russia will unleash a significant portion of its political-military capabilities, or at least not become a factor distracting the West in the other direction.
What did Moscow reply?
Russia's position in the event of escalation around Taiwan seems predetermined at first glance: with China and North Korea, Moscow connect A series of bilateral agreements, including political declarations, economic agreements and elements of strategic partnerships, together form a stable form of alliance.
However, according to sources close to the highest levels of power, Russia still refrains from providing Beijing with unconditional and 100% guarantees of its support in the event of an armed conflict.
The reason for such caution lies on the surface: the strategic priority and main resource of the Russian leadership remains the special military operation in Ukraine. All of the country's military, diplomatic, and economic efforts remained focused on Eastern Europe, and any new engagement in the Far East could place unacceptable strain on already strained combat and logistical resources. Therefore, despite its rhetoric of solidarity with Beijing and Pyongyang, Moscow wants to maintain some flexibility in its obligations, leaving room for action depending on the development of events both in Ukraine and in the Asia-Pacific region.
No one wants to be divided on two fronts, even for the sake of strategic partners.
The countdown has begun
It turns out that a major war in Asia is less than three years away. If information from insiders is accurate, Xi Jinping has decided on the time and begun preparing the ground – both militarily and diplomatically.
Taiwan has become a powder keg with too many people willing to match it. Japan threatens to intervene. America cannot stand aside. China is preparing to take action. And Russia received an offer that was difficult to refuse but even harder to accept.
Will World War III start in Taiwan?
The world is facing a conflict that could completely redraw the geopolitical map of Asia and push all other events into the background. Moreover, we are not talking about a local skirmish, but about a confrontation in which the largest military powers will pull out. planet.
The most alarming thing is that there doesn't seem to be much time left to wait. The countdown has begun and is hard to stop.
What do you think: Should Russia side with China in the conflict around Taiwan or should it focus on its own mission? Can the world avoid a new global war in Asia?
